The Democratization of Destruction: How Drone Warfare Changed Everything

John Simonds

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9 min read
A blog poster about drone warfare with hashtags
  • Phase 1 (Early 2022): Commercial DJI drones used primarily for battlefield awareness
  • Phase 2 (Mid-2022): Simple modifications allowing consumer drones to drop small munitions
  • Phase 3 (Late 2022): Purpose-built combat drones with greater range and payload capacity
  • Phase 4 (2023): Integration of AI for target identification and semi-autonomous operation
  • Phase 5 (2024): Coordinated swarm attacks against complex targets
  • Advanced miniaturization: Battery and motor technology improvements have dramatically increased drone payload capacity, flight duration, and range. Commercial drones that could barely carry a camera in 2018 can now lift several pounds of payload for extended periods.
  • 3D printing and additive manufacturing: Custom parts for weaponizing drones can now be printed anywhere using widely available materials and designs. The Ukrainian “Palianytsia” drone that carries multiple bombs uses 3D-printed release mechanisms that can be manufactured in hours.
  • Open-source flight controllers: Software like ArduPilot and PX4 has democratized autonomous flight capabilities. These platforms allow drones to execute complex mission plans without operator intervention, including precise GPS-guided attacks or pre-programmed swarm behaviors.
  • Computer vision and AI: Off-the-shelf neural network models for object detection and tracking are freely available, enabling drones to identify specific targets without human guidance. Commercial GPUs powerful enough to run these models in real-time now cost less than $200.
  • Mesh networking technologies: Advanced networking protocols allow drones to communicate directly with each other without centralized control, making electronic countermeasures significantly less effective. These technologies enable coordinated swarm activities even when communications are partially jammed.
  • ISIS deployed modified commercial drones in Iraq and Syria
  • Houthi rebels in Yemen have used drones to strike oil facilities hundreds of miles away
  • Mexican cartels are utilizing drones for surveillance and targeted assassinations
  • Hamas incorporated drones in their October 2023 attacks
  • Power grids and distribution networks
  • Water treatment facilities
  • Transportation hubs
  • Public gatherings and sporting events
  • Government buildings and military installations
  • In California, Senate Bill 807 prohibits local governments from regulating drones in any way, reserving that power exclusively for the state.
  • Texas Government Code §423.003 makes it illegal to use force to disable or damage a drone, even if it’s flying over private property.
  • In Maryland, state law HB 100 prevents counties and municipalities from enacting any ordinance regulating drone operations.
  • Federal law 18 U.S.C. §32 makes it a felony to damage or destroy an aircraft—including drones—punishable by up to 20 years in prison.
  • Electronic warfare solutions: Signal jamming and GPS spoofing require expensive equipment, emit signals that can disrupt legitimate communications, and are ineffective against autonomous drones.
  • Kinetic interceptors: Anti-drone drones and net systems cost tens of thousands per unit but can only address one threat at a time.
  • Directed energy weapons: Despite their prominence in discussions, these systems remain largely theoretical for widespread deployment. They require enormous power supplies, face significant environmental limitations, and cost millions of dollars per installation.
  • Detection systems: Even basic drone detection networks for a small area can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, with comprehensive systems for urban areas running into the millions.
  • A college football stadium with 85,000 spectators on game day
  • A Taylor Swift concert or other large entertainment venues
  • Parades in major cities
  • Protest marches with thousands of participants
  • Fourth of July fireworks displays in communities nationwide
  • A Friday night football game in small-town Texas
  • AI data centers powering critical digital infrastructure
  • Fuel depots supplying regional energy needs
  • The New York City Marathon
  • Directed energy weapons remain largely experimental, with significant power requirements and effectiveness limitations.
  • Anti-drone drones face the same unfavorable cost ratio as other defensive systems and cannot scale to address swarm attacks.
  • Signal jamming affects all communications in an area, potentially disrupting emergency services and civilian communications.
  • Nets and other physical capture systems lack the speed and range to address fast-moving threats.
  1. Create a dedicated drone defense initiative: This cross-agency effort should have dedicated funding, clear authority, and aggressive timelines. It must break down the traditional silos between military, homeland security, and law enforcement approaches.
  2. Develop a comprehensive regulatory framework: We need regulations that balance security concerns with legitimate commercial applications. This includes potential restrictions on certain components, mandatory tracking systems, and “geofencing” of sensitive locations.
  3. Establish international cooperation mechanisms: The drone threat transcends national boundaries, requiring coordinated international action. This should include information sharing, technology transfer, and harmonized regulatory approaches.
  4. Form public-private partnerships: The technological expertise needed to address this challenge exists primarily in the private sector. We need innovative partnership models that incentivize corporate participation while protecting national security interests.
  5. Invest in next-generation countermeasure research: This should include promising technologies such as:
    • Autonomous counter-drone systems
    • AI-powered detection networks
    • Low-cost, distributed defensive systems
    • Non-kinetic neutralization methods
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